Yesterday's US close priced Iran resolution. Monday's overnight tape is pricing the opposite. The Strait of Hormuz reclosure, the US Navy seizure of an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday, and Kuwait's force majeure declaration on oil exports have moved WTI and Brent up more than four percent overnight. Equity indices barely moved, closing fractional. That disconnect is the trade. Either Wednesday's ceasefire expiry produces a de-escalation Trump can brand as "FAR BETTER than JCPOA" and crude gives back the overnight move, or Vance returns without a deal, bombs go off as Trump has now explicitly promised, and equity indices reprice against the Iran escalation that oil markets are already pricing.

Tehran has not confirmed attendance. Three separate Iranian sources crossed the wires yesterday with contradictory positions. Press TV and Tasnim said the delegation will not travel. Mehr News said participation is conditional on the blockade being lifted first. WSJ and AP, citing Pakistani officials, said a team departs Tuesday morning. The IRGC is reported to be actively opposing the negotiating track. This is not positioning noise, it is a live split inside the Iranian decision apparatus that markets cannot price cleanly until it resolves. Pezeshkian's language about "deep historical mistrust" and "unconstructive contradictory signals" from Washington is not the tone of a delegation arriving to sign a deal on Wednesday.

Underneath the macro headline, the AI capex story accelerated materially. Amazon and Anthropic disclosed a 100 billion dollar commitment to AWS over ten years covering Trainium, Graviton and up to 5 gigawatts of capacity. Amazon is putting 5 billion in now with up to 20 billion later, on top of the prior 8 billion. This is the largest single hyperscaler-foundation-model capital commitment announced to date. Apple separately named John Ternus CEO effective 1 September, with Tim Cook transitioning to Executive Chairman. The timing question the analyst community is raising relates to Apple's AI strategy, not succession mechanics. The pattern across both headlines is identical. Compute capex is being locked in on multi-year horizons regardless of near-term rate path or geopolitical volatility.

Nikkei rallied back above 59,000 on tech strength and the BoJ-hold thesis. Reuters sources confirmed the BoJ is likely to hold rates at next week's meeting, citing the prolonged impact of the Middle East war, with a potential June signal if price pressures continue to firm. ASX 200 traded subdued, dragged by health care, energy, mining and financials. Rio Tinto's Q1 Pilbara iron ore output at 78.8 million tons beat comparable quarter but the update failed to inspire, with the company explicitly noting the Middle East conflict has had limited impact on operations. Hang Seng and Shanghai were contained despite NDRC head commitments to actively increase effective domestic demand and enhance supply chain resilience. The policy language is now explicit, the market reaction is not. New Zealand Q1 CPI and NZIER confidence data release overnight.

Monday closed broadly negative across European cash. Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.28 percent, DAX down 1.04, FTSE 100 down 0.55, CAC down 1.12, FTSE MIB down 1.36. Energy was the only meaningfully positive sector at plus 2.42 percent, consistent with the Hormuz repricing. Industrials, consumer discretionary and financials led the downside. Lagarde's language yesterday was notably less dovish than the market positioning suggests. Her framing of "one of the most decisive moments in the 75 years since this association was founded" is not consistent with the priced-in ECB cut path. Rehn said there is no set rate path and the starting point is "reasonably balanced." Pereira said the economy was resilient pre-war and the damage is not yet visible. German PPI printed 2.5 percent month-on-month against 1.4 expected, the strongest read in the series since the energy crisis. The inflation picture is firming underneath, the growth picture is softening, and the ECB is nowhere near as committed as rate markets are pricing.

The US open confronts three repricing vectors at once. Energy sits at the top of the stack with WTI and Brent up four to four and a half percent overnight and Kuwait joining the supply disruption narrative via force majeure. Duration carries asymmetric risk into a Warsh confirmation hearing this afternoon where the former governor will deliver prepared remarks on Fed independence. The line "monetary policy independence is essential" and the clarification that independence is not threatened when elected officials state views on rates is a deliberate framing that will move the front end. Earnings density increases today. The Amazon-Anthropic disclosure sets a new floor for hyperscaler capex commitments, read across to Meta, Google and Microsoft is immediate. Uber disclosed an 11.52 percent passive stake in Lucid, 37.75 million shares, with total investment now 500 million dollars and a commitment of at least 35,000 vehicles for its future robotaxi service. The Estée Lauder financing request to JPMorgan for around 5 billion euros for the Puig takeover confirms the consolidation wave running underneath the macro noise is still accelerating.

The first-order trade is the Iran binary into Wednesday. Crude, energy equities, Middle East ETF exposures and the dollar all carry asymmetric risk against the ceasefire deadline. Oil is pricing escalation more than equities are. If the Vance delegation extracts a deal Trump can brand acceptably, WTI and Brent give back most of the overnight move and Friday's seven to nine percent collapse becomes prescient. If the deadline passes without resolution, oil extends and equity indices reprice against a Gulf conflict re-entering active phase with the US Navy already in kinetic posture. The second-order trade is duration. Ten-year yields at 4.25 percent have flattened into the front end and if Warsh's opening remarks read hawkish relative to positioning, the curve continues to flatten on the front-end repricing.

The third-order trade is AI capex concentration. The Amazon-Anthropic 100 billion commitment over ten years is a multiple of the next-largest announced capex horizon in the sector. Names with custom silicon exposure, hyperscaler customer concentration in training workloads, and power infrastructure for the 5 gigawatts of capacity referenced in the disclosure decouple from the broader tech complex on any escalation-driven risk-off move. Pure software and high-multiple growth without capex visibility remain exposed to duration repricing. Apple's CEO transition creates a specific six-month window where analyst community questions about AI strategy become active rather than latent. The Estée Lauder-Puig deal, the Uber-Lucid stake expansion, and the Amazon-Anthropic capex commitment are three separate consolidation and capital allocation signals in a 24-hour window. The structural story is not being displaced by the Iran headline, it is being obscured by it.