The Wall Street rebound was clean and the Asia handover was incomplete, and the gap between the two is the story. The S&P added 1.05 percent to 7,138, the Nasdaq led at 1.73 percent, and small caps participated. By the time Asia opened, the Nikkei had tagged a fresh record above 60,000 and faded, the ASX held weak despite Australian flash PMIs returning to expansion, and the Hang Seng and Shanghai opened on the back foot. The market is reading the ceasefire as a process, not an outcome, and the operational reality of the Strait of Hormuz keeps pulling the energy complex away from any diplomatic relief that the equity tape wants to price.

The Pentagon told Congress this week that mine-clearing operations across Hormuz would take six months to complete after any agreement is reached, and that no clearing work can begin while the conflict remains unresolved. That single disclosure sets a multi-month operational floor under the crude risk premium regardless of the headline ceasefire status. Layered on top, the US Navy intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters and redirected them, the IRGC seized two ships inside Hormuz citing navigation violations, a third vessel reportedly came under fire eight nautical miles west of Iran, and CBS reporting indicates roughly half of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile and associated launch systems remained intact through the early-April truce. The asymmetric capability is preserved, the kinetic activity has not stopped, and the market is responding accordingly. Brent and WTI both added another 1.4 percent in early Asia on top of Wednesday's 3 percent rally.

The diplomatic optics remain noisier than the substance. Trump publicly refuted reports of a defined three-to-five day extension window, while Israeli Broadcasting Authority continues to point to a Sunday deadline for Washington to reach a structured understanding rather than just resume talks. Pakistani officials are mediating in Islamabad and have hinted at a possible second round on Friday, but Tehran officially stated yesterday it has no plans to negotiate Friday and is still studying the meaning of the extension itself. The setup heading into the weekend is a binary on whether a written framework lands by Sunday or the ceasefire fractures.

Mostly negative tape despite the positive Wall Street handover. Nikkei swung between gains and losses after tagging a fresh record above 60,000, ultimately closing down 0.9 percent, with mixed flash PMIs (manufacturing 54.9 beat 51.8, services 51.2 missed 52.0). ASX 200 declined 0.8 percent on consumer-sector weakness even as the country's flash PMIs returned to expansion across the board (manufacturing 51.0, services 50.3, composite 50.1). Hang Seng down 1.1 percent and Shanghai down 0.6 percent on autos and retail drag offsetting gains in energy majors. South Korean Q1 GDP printed a sharp upside surprise at 1.7 percent quarter on quarter against 0.9 expected, with the year on year at 3.6 percent against 2.7 expected. The PBoC fixed USD/CNY at 6.8650 against 6.8294 expected, the firmest divergence from model in two weeks. Tencent and Alibaba reportedly in talks to invest in DeepSeek per The Information.

European futures indicate a soft cash open after Wednesday's 0.4 percent close lower. EU Consumer Confidence collapsed to minus 20.6 from minus 16.3, the sharpest deterioration in the series in over a year. Berlin downgraded its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.5 percent from 1.0 percent and 2027 to 0.9 percent from 1.3 percent, with inflation seen at 2.7 percent in 2026 and 2.8 percent in 2027. ECB commentary from Lane, Kocher, Simkus and Stournaras converged on patience, with Simkus explicitly ruling out an April hike and Stournaras leaning the same way. Lane noted it is too early to assess the duration of the Iran shock and hard to know whether it is temporary or something bigger. UK political pressure on PM Starmer escalated materially, with senior government sources telling the Telegraph that the wheels have stopped turning at Number 10 over the Mandelson scandal and Cabinet loyalists reportedly turning. UK March CPI printed at 3.3 percent year on year in line with expectations but with services inflation at 4.5 percent above the 4.4 expected.

The session opens into a dense data and earnings calendar. Global flash April PMIs print across all major regions as the cleanest read on energy-shock pass-through to demand expectations. US Jobless Claims, the ECB Wage Tracker, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, French Business Confidence, Mexican Inflation and Canadian PPI complete the macro print board. Earnings include Blackstone, Freeport-McMoRan, Intel, Lockheed Martin, SAP, Sanofi, Vinci, Orange, American Airlines and Keurig Dr Pepper. Fed remains in blackout. White House economic adviser Hassett's remarks yesterday flagged inflation declining at the core, the possibility of rate cuts alongside balance sheet normalisation, and openly discussed accelerating Kevin Warsh into the Fed with talks on how to move Warsh forward. The political pressure on Fed independence is now operating in plain sight. EIA crude stocks rose 1.925 million against a 1 million draw expected, the first build in five weeks but offset by the geopolitical bid.

The first-order trade is the structural floor under crude. Six months of mine-clearing work plus active interdiction risk is now the embedded operational backdrop, regardless of whether the headline ceasefire holds through Sunday. Tanker names, LNG carriers, refinery margin exposures and Middle East-related ETF sleeves carry sustained tailwinds rather than binary reprice risk. The second-order trade is European duration and growth-sensitive cyclicals. Berlin cutting 2026 growth in half (0.5 from 1.0) and EU Consumer Confidence at minus 20.6 confirms the energy shock is being absorbed by forward-looking growth indicators faster than the ECB had assumed. Bunds at a weekly low and four ECB officials publicly leaning patient is the policy response.

The third-order trade is US Fed independence and front-end rates. Hassett openly discussing the path to seat Warsh, combined with Warsh's own confirmation hearing framing on balance sheet reduction and rejecting long-term treasury holdings, is hawkish relative to current pricing. Front-end yields took the brunt of the move yesterday and the curve flattened. If the Sunday Iran deadline fractures, the front end has further room to reprice. The fourth-order trade is the structural China-US semiconductor decoupling. The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced 20 bipartisan bills tightening AI and semiconductor export controls to China, Lutnick confirmed no Nvidia chips have been sold to China, and Tencent-Alibaba investment talks with DeepSeek confirm Chinese AI capex is being routed domestically. Read-across to ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and the broader wafer fab equipment complex on the export-control tightening, with offsetting domestic-China semiconductor capex absorption.